Replies to post #632278 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[EternalPatience]

now i expect the reverse split experts to pop in...

[RumplePigSkin]

Case dismissed - keep posting GAK - you have the energy and apparently you’re our anchor man to get us across the finish line. Please keep your posts saved and ready to be reposted because we’re currently in the big bang chapter of the JPS playbook - reverse split is the next chapter.

[TRCPA]

If Calabria stays with his 4% capital standards, I can certainly foresee a similar scenario to that.

It just makes sense.

[kthomp19]

Do I think it is possible? Well certainly it is. AIG did it, with SIX public offerings. And when they made their first public offering, it did trade at a discount to the final market price price ($32 vs. $65), but it did not trade at the OTC price ($7). Subsequent offerings came in, I believe, at $45.

Good info, thank you for posting it.

It appears, from the link you posted, that the six offerings occurred in a 19-month period, from May 2010 to December 2011. I could see FnF doing that. I don't see them spreading it out over several years, though.

I do wonder about whether or not the final share count will be known prior the first in a series of raises. If it is known, why break it up? Even if it is broken up, the price would be the same as if it was all done at once; FnF wouldn't want to risk the price going down in future raises (remember, I'm assuming a fixed share count for each raise) and thus not raising enough capital.

If it isn't, what's the incentive for anyone to participate in the first one, not knowing how much they will be diluted later? My only idea for this last question is for the offering to be at such a low price that it's hard for those first-offering investors to lose money. But that would probably be very low indeed, and much lower than those here who want FnF to do multiple raises would like.

And, AIG did not convert their preferred stock until the stock reached market price. Pfds were converted at par value ($45)

That was Treasury's preferreds that were converted. I don't think a FnF senior-to-common conversion would be anything like a junior-to-common conversion, though.