South West Deposit PEA Returns Positive Economics on Both Stand-Alone and Toll Milling Scenarios
This morning, Moneta released a PEA (Exhibits 1-4) for the South West deposit, part of its Golden Highway project in Timmins, Ontario. A conference call will be held tomorrow at 10:30am ET; dial-in: 343.761.2596.
Highlights
• Works as Stand-Alone Mine: The base case models a 1,750tpd processing plant (94% recovery) that will ramp up (over two years) production in the UG mine to ~86Koz pa (by year 5; average 76Koz pa @ 3.9g/t diluted LOM). The initial capex on the 11 year mine is $144M (includes 15% contingency). The average long-hole stoping mining width is projected to be 8m (minimum 3m). The ore will be brought to surface via a ramp that’ll use 30t trucks. Costs are expected to be around $90/t and during the LOM the average AISC is forecasted at US$747/oz. Using a $1,500/oz Au price the PEA returned a NPV5% of $236M and ~30% IRR.
• Works as a Toll Milling Mine: The alternate scenario would be a quick, low capex operation whereby ore is trucked to an existing plant in the area. In this option the company would incur no processing plant and tailings facility costs and permitting would be a breeze. The toll milling options assumed lower recoveries at 92%, removing the cheaper gravity circuit from the plan. The production profile is similar (average 74Koz pa over the 11 year LOM) but operating costs would be higher at $119/t and US$938 AISC. However, with the lower upfront capex at $65M the IRR improves to ~44% (NPV5%: $197M).
• Growing Resource Presents Upside: The PEA used a lower cut-off at 2.6g/t (from 3.0g/t) from the previously stated South West resource. This increased the size of the total indicated and inferred South West resource by 22% to 1.8Moz (from ~1.5Moz). We note, this PEA was based on where the majority of drilling has been so far, the South West deposit and is more than enough to get started. Satellite deposits could offer additional upside in the future.
• Surrounded by Operating Mines/Mills: Toll milling could occur at any of the existing mills in the area including Holt Holloway, Black Fox, Hoyle Pond, Hollinger, Timmins West, and Bell Creek. Kirkland Lake’s (KL-T, Not Rated) and Newmont’s (NEM-N, Not Rated) recent formation of a strategic alliance on exploration in the area also bodes well for the camp and Moneta.
Valuation – Cheap on Existing Resource
Our $0.35/share price target is based on an in-situ multiple (~US$50/oz Au or ~3% of our long-term gold price) on the 1.7Moz Golden Highway resource.
Bottom Line – Build it or Toll It, Either Way Works
The resource growth, stock valuation, and gold price will make the decision in the next year or so if industry players don’t act first. With a desirable location in an existing camp with many underutilized mills the existing resource alone renders Moneta undervalued. We maintain our Buy recommendation and $0.35/share target price.
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