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FUNMAN

08/26/20 7:55 PM

#14120 RE: twister1 #14118

The next big cannabis PPS motivator will be the USA elections.

If the WH and Senate flip to the dems, USA cannabis is going to run like tech is now. Canadian cannabis will run in sympathy.

Even the perception of the WH and Senate flipping as early as October is going to make cannabis speculators start betting on it happening. Almost any of the USA MSOs will double their PPS's in a very short time frame.

The PPS's will get way ahead of themselves and be way overbought, but the exuberance will drive the market. Be mindful of that when considering what to do.

The Canadian LPs won't run as hard.

After nearly 12 months of following Cannabis closely, the best Canadian LP remains Aphria. They have the best operational efficiencies, the only one to post profitable Q's, and they are already opening up the European market while other companies are still seeking licenses. The Oct Q might show Aphria is producing more revenues in Europe, then in Canada. Revenues should exceed $180M, and EBITDA may be near $20M. If they hit those numbers I think Aphria will be maintain a $6 PPS "FLOOR" at the year end. In 2021 they will probably be the first billion dollar revenue producer out of all the USA and Canadian cannabis companies.

Aphria is seeking an accretive non-cannabis acquisition in the USA so they don't run afoul of the Canadian or USA stock exchange rules, and so they don't have to over-pay a cannabis multiple.

The plan is to convert the business to cannabis as the USA laws change. It is reasonable to assume they are looking for a pharmaceutical company. This is exactly what they did when they bought CC Pharma in Germany.

https://www.cc-pharma.de/

Aphria made it work for them then and now.

I expect them to do the same in the USA.

They may also be Canada's best managed LP.

If they make the accretive acquisition before the election, they may jump to $8 before the election if they post Oct rev's of $180+.

If they make the accretive acquisition, and the WH and Senate flip, a $10+ PPS by year end seems reasonable simply based on enthusiasm.