ALBO - After-hours selloff on NASH a few weeks ago indeed proved to be a good entry point for PFIC results. Piper was first to update their price target to $81 per share this afternoon, I expect more upgrades today/tomorrow.
I personally believe the opportunity is greater. ALBO has $150 million of cash with an $80 million line of credit with Hercules and enough capital to get through odevixibat commercial launch. They will also have the potential to receive a priority review voucher worth ~$100 million. Commercialization should be straightforward with only 10 sales reps needed for US, and similar for EU. ROW licensing can potentially provide additional upfront capital or licensing revenue.
Current enterprise value of $430 million ($330 million if you include the value of the priority review voucher) seems light given their 100% ownership of odevixibat and the potential opportunity in other pediatric liver disease (Biliary Atresia, Alagille, etc.). The current valuation is similar to MIRM, which does not have as robust of data as ALBO, and whose drug has significant AE's relative to odevixibat, and has to pay milestones and royalties on any future sales of their products. Certainly appears to be a value arbitrage between the two, with ALBO deserving of a higher valuation, in my opinion.
I respect this board's opinion and am curious if anyone here has a position or interest in ALBO. Thanks in advance.
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