Replies to post #75995 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[cliffvb]

Homebuilder confidence index came out this morning tying the record high in 1998. Those lumber mills need to ramp up production!

Washington, DC, August 17, 2020-In a sign that housing continues to lead the economy forward, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased six points to 78 in August, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI now stands at its highest reading in the 35-year history of the series, matching the record that was set in December 1998.

“The demand for new single-family homes continues to be strong, as low interest rates and a focus on the importance of housing has stoked buyer traffic to all-time highs as measured on the HMI,” said NAHB chairman Chuck Fowke. “However, the V-shaped recovery for housing has produced a staggering increase for lumber prices, which have more than doubled since mid-April. Such cost increases could dampen momentum in the housing market this fall, despite historically low interest rates.”

[value1008]

Homebuilders - Hey R59, i'm kicking myself for not having gone heavily into names like TOL, CCS, and LEN at nadir prices back in March. They've all appreciated 2.5x - 3x since then.

Instead, i wound up with a handful of deadbeat stocks.

Even before COVID hit, i had a basket of very promising biotechs and tech stocks, several of which all plummeted in one month from Jan-Feb., so it left me with little cash or equity to invest in names like those homebuilders.

And then almost none of my losers rebounded in the great V-shaped recovery of April-June.

So it's a big "ouch" when i see how enormously different my portfolio of smallcap/microcap stocks would look had i switched-out my losers for the homebuilders TOL, CCS, LEN and maybe others.