News 
Market Data 
Discover
Replies to post #32422 on Market Direction and Stock Trends
08/22/20 1:30 PM
The Russel 2000 Index Cash closing today at 155248 is immediately trading down about 6.95% for the year from last year's settlement of 166847. This price action here in August is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 160360 intraday and is still trading above that high of 150724.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.
The Russel 2000 Index Cash opened within last year's trading range which was 168168 to 132518. Right now, the market is still trading within last year's range with the last print at 155248. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 2018. Nonetheless, the market is trading below the opening print for the year which was at 167590. As long as this market remains trading above 134065 yet below the opening print on a closing basis, then a similar year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.
DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE
On the Daily Level, our Forecast Array suggests that there is a practical likelihood of a decline moving into Mon. 24th with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 25th.
PIVOT POINTS
Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 155875, 156350, and 156441 for this next trading session.
DAILY PIVOT POINTS
155875
156350
156441
Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 155136. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 155611, 156700, and 156937. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.
NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW
The Russel 2000 Index Cash made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and then closed below that level falling again by 1.59%. This market has declined for 8 trading days since the last high established at 160360 from which we have witnessed a decline of 3.63%. . Thus far, we have a serious crash in play for eight trading sessions.
Definitively remember, this correction has not penetrated the last cycle low established at 145762 fifteen days ago making this a retest of that previous low rather than a change in trend so far. Factually, this market remains above the technical uptrend support which lies at 155120.
Factually, the market remains bearish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. The market is trading within our envelope albeit skewed to the bearish side.
We have not broken below our intraday Crash Point number of 154744 suggesting this is not yet a panic sell-off type of move. We did close below the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator at 156438 settling at 156430 which alerted us to a further decline was likely going into the immediate session. The current crash mode support for this current session was 154744 which we have now closed back above suggesting the crash is subsiding. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 153808. Now since we closed back above this indicator in the current trading session, then holding above this indicator for the next session will imply the decline is subsiding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 142105 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 154744
Previous... 156438
Tomorrow... 153808
HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Daily Bullish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new low penetrating 154536. These hypothetical Tentative Bullish Reversals would stand at 149356, 149515, 158554, and 159512, whereas a close above the previous high 156337 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Bullish Reversals will then become fixed as long as the low holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bullish Reversals during that session would signal a bounce is unfolding and that such a low may stand. However, if we continue to make new lows, then these WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the low becomes fixed.
Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bullish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new low penetrating 154536. These hypothetical Tentative Bullish Reversals would stand at 117497, 133012, 145941, and 150187, whereas a close above the previous high 158652 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Bullish Reversals will then become fixed as long as the low holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bullish Reversals during that session would signal a bounce is unfolding and that such a low may stand. However, if we continue to make new lows, then these WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the low becomes fixed.
Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 150724. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 96621, whereas a close below the previous low 138410 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.
REVERSAL SYSTEM
Applying our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 158653 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 150157. This provides a very near-term 13% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 163478 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 141726. This provides a 13% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 158618 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 110257. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 30%.
REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |
174300 | 3 | 174300 | 1 | 174300 | 1 |
173346 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172439 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172382 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172263 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172230 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
172022 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
171590 | 1 | 171590 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
170618 | 1 | 170857 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
169518 | 1 | 169546 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
168918 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
168739 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
167666 | 1 | 167666 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
166120 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
163312 | 1 | 163478 | 1 | 163478 | 1 |
160370 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
158653 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 159250 | 1 |
----------------------------------------
150157 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 158618 | 1 |
147136 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
146470 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
146120 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
143645 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
142854 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
142364 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140305 | 1 | 141726 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
140097 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
138400 | 2 | 139380 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
137430 | 1 | 137430 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
137270 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
134938 | 2 | 136115 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
133398 | 1 | 134350 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
130726 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
126255 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS
Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ -156365
Weekly ....... 150295
Monthly ...... 118669
Quarterly .... 129292
Yearly ....... 118169
Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.
Up to this moment in time, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 103538 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.
Factually, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 14540 and an end of week closing above this level will be a buy signal for now. Up to this moment in time, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 594604 and a month end closing above this level will be a buy signal for now.
We closed the previous month at 144137 after making a new high up three months from the low established back in June during 2020 at 153974. Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our monthly indicating range models as was the case last month.
BROADER OVERVIEW
The historical perspective in the Russel 2000 Index Cash included a rally from 2002 moving into a major high for 2018, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2002. The market has penetrated last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2013 which signaled the rally would continue into 2018.
On a broader standpoint, this market remains in a positive posture on the yearly level while the quarterly level remains neutral on our indicating models. Still, it remains below key resistance on the quarterly level. This implies that the high established back in 2018 still remains important resistance. Immediately, it remains in a positive position on the weekly level but negative on the monthly level at this moment.
This past year alone, saw a significant price drop of about 23%.
RISK FACTORS
Russel 2000 Index Cash Risk Table
----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---
DAILY......... 158653 | 2.193% | 150157 | 3.279% |
WEEKLY........ 163478 | 5.301% | 141726 | 8.709% |
MONTHLY....... 158618 | 2.17% | 110257 | 28.98% |
QUARTERLY..... 160220 | 3.202% | 113170 | 27.1% |
YEARLY........ 0 | 94.44% | 104046 | -4.13% |
DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
After the historical high was established during 2018, a major low was created on 03/18/2020 at 96622 which was 112 days from that major high. The Uptrend line resides at 97375 providing the technical underlying support. The top of the Uptrend Channel stands at 109542 which we have exceeded at this point in time.
Meanwhile, the Downtrend Line from that major high of 2018 to the subsequent reaction high of 172600 formed 10 days thereafter resides at 91185. This line has provided technical support which the market has been trading above. Given the fact that the market is trading well above that technical indicator implies that any potential support would be during a short-term panic sell off. The post high low was established at 96622. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals from that important post high low on the daily level.
The more recent Downtrend Line constructed from the last high of 160360 to the subsequent reaction high of 159512 stands at 152728 while drawing a channel provides us with support at 132194. A break of this support with a closing below it will suggest a correction is unfolding. However, an intraday penetration of this support with a close back above would suggest that market could pause briefly.
Now incorporating our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Energy Models are still positive but declining right now.
OVERALL TREND
The Russel 2000 Index Cash is in bearish position on the quarterly short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. The Russel 2000 Index Cash is in a neutral position on the monthly short-term level of our momentum model yet bearish on the monthly trend while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Looking at the weekly level, this market is currently in a bullish position. The Russel 2000 Index Cash is in bearish position on the daily short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.
DiscoverGold 
