Replies to post #341385 on Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc (ELTP)

[DR Ryan]

That projection was after years of being in the markets, not last year. Lots of "ifs" in there as well.

Coulda woulda shoulda. Focus on the future.

[no2koolaid]

According to N2K, with opioids and Adderall, we could have had over $100M in revenue last year.

Um, that is a big NO! As I said before, given the facts at hand, Elite could not have committed to both opioids and CNS drugs and carried out an effective growth strategy, because of the limited nature of the available funds from LPC due to the clear and concerted effort to keep the share price below 10 cents. Thus, they made the strategic pivot from pain meds to CNS drugs, with their greater market potential.

So, since we know the prospects for IR & XR (c-below), current and future, let's look solely at the math for their former pain meds - again, at peak revenues, which is a timeline not yet met AND limited by a commercialization partner that never materialized. So, the math...ONE MORE TIME...

Percocet: 16 competitors means prorated share of 6.25%/500 = 31.250 M
Norco: 11 competitors means prorated share of 0.91% / 447 = 40.680 M
Ty w/code: 8 competitors means prorated share of 12.5% / 45 = 5.630 M
Methadone: 10 competitors means prorated share = 10.0% / 30 = 3.00 M
Hydromorphone: 8 competitors means prorated share = 12.5% / 30 = 3.750 M

The prorated aggregate market share for the owner of all five drugs = $84.310 M

At best...at peak...with a commercialization partner who would get a split that I did not account for (and one that is likely going to take 25-50% of the sales split)...the number is $84.31 M...Not $100M. This, as opposed to the same prorated market share for generic Adderall IR& XR that poses a peak revenue benefit of > $160M. As I would expect, the significant delta between the two potential markets would have/should have generated a significant decisional tipping point. (That is almost an IQ test for Elite's management..."Nasrat, would you rather escalate your commitment (sunk costs being what they are) and have 48% less revenue, with the risks associated with more opioid litigation exposure...or do you want a less litigated drug class with a greater market share potential? Take your time, you do not need to answer all at once!")

And, speaking of math and $100 M, there is this...

This graph is the perfect summation of Nasrat's failed tenure as CEO. It represents nearly $100M spent in R&D (more than $50M for SequestOx alone),

FACT CHECKING…Annual R&D expenses for Elite over time…
2020 = 5,532,462
2019 = 7,599,820
2018 = 9,621,365
2017 = 8,301,693
2016 = 2,903,178
2015 = 2,904,114
2014 = 2,105,725

2013 *

*Nasrat was named CEO August 2013, so his tenure actually began in Fiscal Year 2014. Thus, the FY 2013 R&D of $3,959,316 was NOT during his tenure as CEO.

By adding all the R&D expenses during Nasrat’s tenure as CEO, the totals are $38,968,357. That is 39% of the claimed $100M

As Bob Uecker would say - "Juuuuuust a little bit outside!"

Trying to keep it real.

[elichen]

The great revenue we “could have had” depended on getting a partner to commercialize it as N2K pointed out.
There was also the issue that Elite had to divest some drugs in order to be below a max number for lower fees.