Replies to post #624120 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[FFFacts]

If I thought administrative action wasn't coming then I would definitely sell all my FnF stock and not look back. The court cases, especially Collins, are important, but imo only so far as to force the administration's hand.

That is what most people are waiting for, but I think extending it to scotus decision is also not too far away relatively speaking. If after this people will reevaluate. If the recap timeline is many years there are likely better alternative investments. Between the next 3-10 months is when more clarity will come but the picture is getting clear as to what will happen. Just a matter of the timing.

[trojmn]

Right now Treasury is staring the possibility of having to write a $125B check in the face (though they would keep the seniors).

Doesn't the SPS agreement prevent capital stock issuance without putting those proceeds towards paying down the liquidation preference first.. which is ALOT >200B e.g. you cannot raise capitol with seniors existing in their current form. Is that the new SPSA amendment that you mentioned, which everyone expects to revert to the 10% dividend...

So should 125B get returned for over-payment (admission that the debt is repaid in full) how do warrants ever be excised when they exist as a guarantee to repay the debt? Once warrants are exercised, the debt it cancelled... which already would not exist

[TRCPA]

Agree with much of that.

We also have an election that will take place before the GSE's are released with consent decree. So that's another possible problem toward release from conservatorship.

Still think that the final result will not be a physical payment from treasury to the GSE's, but instead a credit to the GSE's that will apply to core capital....that also eliminates all government interests in the GSE's.

[Commons_Cancelled]

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