Replies to post #313916 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[loanranger]

"Anti-fungal appears to be a $3B+ market in the US.
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/antifungal-drugs-market";
"Say Brilacidin ends up accounting for 5% of that. $150M+ * 6% = $9M+ in freebie revenues."

The PR says....
"...in exchange for a six (6) percent fee tied to all potential future proceeds—including upfront payments, milestone payments and royalties—the Company is granting FCCDC all discovery, intellectual property and commercialization rights related to its share of their joint antifungal drug program."

....and this is the kind of misunderstanding that flows from a decision not to file or otherwise publish the details of an agreement.

You did your math using an assumption that B might do 5% of the estimated US market. The problem in doing that is that Fox isn't going to sell a B product or products....they're hoping to "downlicense" one. So it is anticipated that they will receive, as IPIX hopes to do with AS, an upfront payment, milestone payments and royalties with IPIX receiving a fee equal to 6% of those things.
By taking 6% of product revenues as the amount on which IPIX's fee is based. I believe that you are vastly overstating the potential under the agreement.


I could be mistaken of course, but I don't believe that Fox generates any product sales hence calculating IPIX's income based on estimated product sales isn't appropriate. It should be based on 6% of whatever upfront payments, milestone payments and royalties that Fox receives.