Not necessarily an apples to apples comparison because they are not only different markets, but also at far different stages of life cycle model. But still a reasonable starting point for estimation purposes, so I will run with your suggestion and put actual numbers to it.
ISRG system sales comprise a combination of new customers and replacement and additional systems for their existing customer base; I have no idea what the balance is. Mazor X sales are not likely to be replacements yet; at least I would hope the system lasts more than two years before requiring replacement!
In any event, the most updated sales figures I could find from which I could infer a correlation was 2019 Q4. Articles I saw show sales of 26 Mazor X systems in Q4 vs. ISRG sales of 336 systems in the same period. That is almost a factor of 13. To extrapolate further on this basis alone given the inflation-adjusted $2B that MDT paid for Mazor, they should be willing to go as high as $26B (13 x $2B)for Titan. More realistically, I would suggest that over a 3 to 5 year time span, Medtronic would likely be trying to capture some percentage of that 336 system per quarter market. Given ISRG's strong foot hold and the arrival of additional imminent competition, maybe 20 to 25% would be a reasonable target, especially in light of ISRG's reputation of being ISRG (not always easy to deal with). So maybe 35% in 5 years is a reasonable target. How about a third of that 13x figure, so around $4.5B for Titan?
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Market for a soft tissue robot, compared to spine & Neuro is exponentially higher, much much higher. Medtronic knows this as they can simply compare the number of Mazor units sold compared to ISRG
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