"Also, they prefer not to give the minority shareholders $400M in cash if they can give us sister-company stock instead. Stock, that could be worth $30 or more depending on how the Shanghai market reacts to the merger. "
I too am inclined to lean towards a merger. A win-win. The company doesn't need to give away any cash and the shareholders could potentially get a huge reward in terms of a skyrocketing P/E.