Replies to post #617216 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

Still doesnt answer the follow up question that CATO should have asked regarding when the GSE's would start to submit their plans for recapitalization.

By law, FnF have to submit capital restoration plans when they are given a capital classification (other than "adequately capitalized") by Calabria. That won't happen until the capital rule is finalized, and that in turn cannot happen until at least 60 days after it is published in the Federal Register. So we are a minimum of two months away from that and likely more.

I suspect Calabria......who is smart when it comes to choosing his words toward his target audience.....figured that CATO would just be happy with his choice of words that the capital raise would be in the GSE's hands.....and would not think to follow up with WHEN.

1) I have actually found Calabria to be remarkably consistent in what he says, regardless of the audience. He does have a penchant for underestimating how long things will take, but he knows HERA backwards and forwards, and his words conform to it.
2) Didn't Calabria say that he thinks capital raises will happen in 2021-2022?



In the end, what I am pushing back against is the idea that Calabria saying that FnF will decide how to raise capital must mean that current shareholders will do well. The more money that MS/JPM try to carve out for existing shareholders, the harder the capital raise becomes.

Calabria's use of Hertz as a comparison is an ill omen; the bottom of the capital stack rarely does well in a bankruptcy-like restructuring.