Replies to post #615839 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

Reading some of your posts, you think we are going to have a JPS conversion close to one big capital raise, presumably for each company. And that this happens AFTER the election...

Yes. I don't see a reason for the re-IPO to happen before the election anyway. First, there is too much to be done before a re-IPO (the election is less than 5 months away and MS/JPM were just hired), and second if for some reason Trump doesn't want to deal with the politics of it, waiting until after the election is better in case he loses.

But with JPM and MS starting now, and then ramping up after capital rule is revised and finalized in August, do you really think they have enough time to do the raises between Nov 5 and Jan 15?

The window you mention is rather narrow, and that is a significant source of risk.

The capital raise doesn't necessarily have to happen before January 15, but waiting past that is a huge risk in case Biden wins the election and (as likely will be the case) is able to fire Calabria.

Just curious if you think the offering for both companies happens in the Fall and whether you think they have time to do it?

The best-informed outlets (ACG Analytics, Nomura) project the re-IPO in Q2 2021. However, if Calabria is aiming for that time he is taking the big risk I outlined above.

One very interesting quote by Jamie Dimon was pointed out to me from this piece by Hannah Lang:

We look forward to working side by side with Freddie Mac on this historic assignment in the months ahead.

That second-to-last word is very telling. It's starting to look like all of this will happen faster than I and others thought.

The person who pointed out this quote also said that Jamie Dimon almost never personally makes statements such as these when JPM gets contracts, but I don't know the truth or significance of that.