The smart money, Nomura etc, say $5-$6 is the value of the common, so I don;t see how it gets to $8-10 when we don;t know the details of the SPSA amendments, consent decree, offerings -- or even if they will ever be released
Well said. What explains the $8-10, or any other numbers you see, is wishful thinking, plain and simple. Ask for the actual math behind that estimate (including final share count, form and amount of capital raise, etc) and you'll just get crickets.
It's very easy to say "with all these pieces of good news (SPSPA amendment, NWS over, seniors gone, warrants finally dealt with) the price will easily go to $X!" The problem is that X can be almost anything by that logic, and many current common shareholders have a long history of wildly overestimating the price impact of certain pieces of news.