Replies to post #60933 on Value Microcaps Motherboard

[wadegarret]

Whyme- re: SIMC

Whyme- I think it's important for you to realize a couple things with SIMC, because I am very familiar with the stock. I in fact played SIMC three times in six weeks back in May/June, and it is my biggest gainer of all time. Thing is, when I played it back in May, the speculation was that they would show at least $.22 for the June qtr (as that was listed as a proforma number in the Mar qtr 10Q) when the stock was $6! With the expectation of $,22, the stock looked very cheap as annualized it was looking like $.88 going forward at that point. At $6, that made the stock appear to have less than a 7 PE going forward. It ended up that the stock got to $13 on that speculation within weeks, which was a 15 PE going forward at the time.

Now, unfortnately everything has changed. They didn't make the $.22+ for the June qtr as everyone was speculating- they made only $.12, which hurt the momentum a lot. In addition, they made only $.09 for the Sept qtr on almost the exact same revenues as in the June qtr because of increased S,G,&A and increased interest expense. If you annualize the $.09 for the Sept qtr, you get to $.36 vs a stock price of $6.17, which gets you to a 17 PE going forward presently. So, actually the PE is higher now with flat revenues sequentially and higher expenses, than when growth was appearing to be bursting back in May.

Whyme, the point is, I believe the stock looks expensive with a 17 PE going forward at present, especially with no guidence of spectacular growth coming in 2007. In addition to all this, the economy is speculating to slow in 2007 which would hurt cyclical sectors like the one SIMC is in(EMS sector), and PEs would likely get compressed. So I'd be real careful with SIMC here IMO. Wade