1&2 are the same to me. Although I think a very much cheaper lottery ticket for ulcerative colitis is still in play if corona virus hopes vanish.
So, 3, maybe, one can always hope. Kind of.
Data good enough to move forward and then human trials are by government or by a big Pharma that swoops in. I would guess trading up to 10x current value, esp depending on whatever control IP can maintain of B for c going forward.
Your suggestion of 25 cents to a dollar reasonable given the fact that human trial may still fail even if current RBL tests succeed.
"Scenario 3 means a promising drug for covid patients and $ for shareholders." Your expectations are way too low. I'm going with scenario # 4. IPIX opens at $3 bucks.