Having had some time to think about this, this is my pick from the hypotheses I suggested:
He was at Cortex before Mark Varney, but Varney is clearly the ascendant star, and Mansbach felt eclipsed. Mansbach arrived 18 months before Varney, but Varney was named COO, and has represented Cortex in doing presentations (I've seen him, he does it well). There is no doubt that Varney is being prepared to become CEO whenever (and I don't see this as nearterm) Roger Stoll decides to step down. In a company Cortex's size, that doesn't leave any plums for Mansbach to pursue.
I strongly believe that it is not a tox data-driven decision: He would have had to initiate a search before any of the second wave of tox data became available.
We won't know if he decided to opt for BP security or small company potential until his next stop is announced--by whatever company he is joining.
I don't think the Mel Gibson thing is going to work out--turns out Mansbach's Mayan isn't all that fluent.
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