Replies to post #232096 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

RVNC—ASPEN-OLS* phase-3 CD trial is fully enrolled, according to today’s 1Q20 CC (https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/vpe8qeai/dmediaset/audio @15:25).

This is a significant update insofar as I previously thought ASPEN-OLS enrollment would be delayed on account of COVID-19 (#msg-154310354).

Reminder: ASPEN-OLS and ASPEN-1 (where all patients have competed treatment and are being followed for observation) comprise the full phase-3 package for Daxi in cervical dystonia (#msg-148887973).

*Open-Label Safety.

[DewDiligence]

(RVNC)—MYL’s decision whether to opt in for the Botox-biosimilar program is expected by the end of May.

Re-iterated on MYL’s RBC webcast yesterday. RVNC furnished analysis for MYL to evaluate on 4/29/30, and the contract allows MYL thirty days to make a decision.

[DewDiligence]

RVNC’s 3/31/20 pro forma cash=$529.9M. This figure consists of: $489.9M of net current assets on the 3/31/19 balance sheet—excluding the “deferred revenue” and “derivative liability” lines, which are accounting artifacts rather than bona fide liabilities (https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1479290/000147929020000058/rvncq12010-q.htm#s928551B6BA26958D21C516CE0BB37758 ); and $30M received from MYL for opting in on the Botox-biosimilar program (#msg-155961720).

RVNC’s guidance for 2020 operating cash burn is approximately $220M (#msg-155499241).

(In the above calculation, RVNC’s convertible debt is considered as straight equity, and hence it does not enter into the arithmetic.)

[DewDiligence]

RVNC 2Q20 results—6/30/20 cash=$494M—(a $17M decline from 3/31/20):

https://investors.revance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/revance-reports-second-quarter-2020-financial-results-provides

The US launch of Teoxane’s dermal fillers is on-track for 3Q20 (i.e. soon).

Guidance for 2020 operating cash burn remains $220-230M.