VC -
Sorry to be a one-note, but it's not "magic resistance" it's the "wall of warrants."
For example, per the 10-Q, 30mm shares were exercised and sold into the market in 26 trading days from 3/1 thru 4/6. Mostly programs phase in above $2.60, though range is subject to adjustment. The last run at $3 appears to have resulted in far more aggressive exercises per day.
No diss on Nadar at all - but he is about to file an S-3 to increase max authorized shares. Duh! He's created a multi-billion dollar drug by raising $300m from people willing to share the risk. Out-freaking-standing.
So, warrant exercise today isn't totally bad - the vast majority will sell someday. My SWAG is that max overhang is now down to roughly 15% of shares, maybe a bit more if the recent financing ever converts at $4.50/shr (a high quality concern).
If anyone emails Nadar, asking his accountants for an update on footnote 17 would be great.