MarketFest, I had the same uncanny ability to sell at/near a bottom. Looking back, with my previous "bet the farm" approach, the only thing that saved me from total annihilation was - a) nervously taking profits as soon as I got them, b) nervously staying out prior to binary events, and c) nervously staying in cash most of the time :o) Other than that I would have quickly lost all my money (I still managed to lose a lot outside of the bio sector).
If one looks at how things are currently shaping up -
1) Global Neurodegenerative rights reassembled - On the plus side, Cortex was able to (somehow) reassemble these rights. That's the good part. The bad part is that this key property, what we once called Cortex's "crown jewels", will soon be sold off in a firesale due to Cortex's increasingly desperate need for cash. $5-10 mil for the crown jewels, including the high impact platform, man this wasn't the outcome I expected when I started following Cortex.
2) The probable demise of CX-717. I'm starting to figure this into my "most likely" scenario. A resurrection is not impossible, but barring a some sort of miracle, CX-717 is most likely dead for ADHD. The dosing restrictions might give it a shot at partnering for AD, but with the Neurodegenerative rights being dealt away soon anyway, tossing a crippled CX-717 into the deal probably won't improve the terms all that much.
3) Non-Ampakine in-license - Try as I may to warm up to this idea, the bottom line is that going this route morphs the company into something I'm not that interested in. I can find other small bio investments without taking on the huge risks of the neurological sector. For better or worse, my interest in Cortex has always centered on their Ampakine platform.
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