Replies to post #70571 on Decision Diagnostics Corp (DECN)

[Jack_of_All_Trades]

Thanks for the incredible posts! You've contributed a tremendous amount of great information.

DECN

[MsPenny]

Thank you for sharing the information in concise form.

[rawman]

The initial projection provided of 425M units over the course of a year beginning in Sept 2020 chart should be taken down or given an asterisk because that all changed when the FDA changed the rules for EUA.The company has made clear that they anticipate initial roll out of 250,000 test kits in May 2020 and that the change in FDA rules cuts out months of development time for the products approval. Once and if they pass the FDA data testing guidelines given after the PRE-EUA approval letter, they would be able to manufacture, sell and distribute immediately.

PLEASE POST ANY PROOF TO SUPPORT THE SUPPOSITIONS OUTLINED IN THE ABOVE STATEMENTS, particularly the one about "...after the Pre-EUA approval letter, they would be to ABLE (rather than 'entitled to') manufacture, sell, and distribute immediately"!

The following was directly copied from DECN's Press Release, which was distributed on March 17, 2020, one day after the modified EUA Guidelines were made public by the FDA. Take note, the chart showing first 21mm kits being available in SEPTEMBER 2020 was a part of this PR. What's more, take note of the fact, DECN was "assuming" EUA Authorization on this very day, March 17, 2020!

(MARCH 17, 2020) -- Today, in this second of four updates about our GenViro™ Swift" kit for the testing of COVID-19, we will focus on our expected roll-out. We are happy to inform all interested parties that we have raised our 12-month forecast to 525 million kits. We have also added commercial laboratories, those labs with remote blood drawing stations (an estimated 27,000 nationwide), and religious groups to those entities that will receive the first kits manufactured post FDA Emergency Approval.

Also, after reviewing DECN's forecast chart, which was included as a part of the 3/17 PR, the projection is 525mm units over 7 months, i.e. September 2020 thru March 2021, not the claimed 12 months! Taking the official forecast a step further, 362mm of the 525mm kits are to be deliverable in 2021 not 2020, which is nearing the time it is hoped there will be a broadly available SARS-CoV2 vaccine.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/DECN/news/DECNS-GenViroTM-Corona-Virus-Swift-Kit-Now-to-Be-Additionally-Offered-to-Commercial-Labs-and-Religious-Groups-as-12-Mont?id=256690

Furthermore, the posted SUPPOSITIONS ARE NOT SUPPORTED by DECN's Supplemental Information Statement, which was posted to OTC Markets on MARCH 30, 2020, a full TWO WEEKS after the FDA's modified EUA Guidelines were announced on MARCH 16, 2020! Very specifically, DECN provided a 120-day product commercialization projection as of March 30. The 120-day projection was based on the STATED ASSUMPTION the first GenViro test kit WOULD receive an EUA Authorization. The 120-days means DECN will finally be in a position to manufacture test kits in AUGUST 2020, with finished inventory to be initially available in SEPTEMBER 2020, thus there is NO ASTERISK REQUIRED, as SEPTEMBER 2020 has not been changed and remains DECN's "official" projected start date, based on a specifically assumed EUA Authorization! BTW, the entire path forward anticipates no glitches in DECN's 120-day commercialization plan!

(March 30, 2020) -- The company is operating on an 8-week development schedule and is some 10 days into this schedule. The current development cycle is considered advanced development. For FDA EUA filing and the granting of a Pre-EUA by the FDA, the company is preparing its final working concept filing, to be completed within days of this writing.

(March 30, 2020) -- In the next 120 days the company expects to enter the Covid-19 test kit market with unique, cost effective, accurate and wholly proprietary products. Almost all available resources are being directed to the Covid-19 products (see Business Introduction). It is unknown how big this market will eventually grow to encompass, but given the severity of the Covid-19 pandemic, the fact that the company is developing screening tests, we expect to make a big market entry as we finish our product, manufacture it, and achieve FDA initial and then complete clearance.

(March 30, 2020) -- The company is also in discussions with Korean contract manufacturers to augment our GenViro! Products, a product line we expect to require capacity to manufacture millions of these kits.

(March 30, 2020) -- At December 31, 2019, we had cash of $114,334 and negative working capital of $3,644,036. We anticipate that we will require up to $250 million in trade debt financing to finance our expected sales of our GenViro!, GenUltimate!, GenUltimate! Premier, GenUltimate! TBG, and GenChoice!. Trade debt financing is traditional debt where the borrower borrows cash, usually from a revolving line of credit used to finance pre-payment for inventory.

FYI, a meager $10,000,000 revolving credit to finance producing and shipping x-many million of kits (21mm isn't happening!) will not hack it! Given DECN has zero "free cash", CEO Keith Berman has a very long way to go in lining the needed inventory financing!

HERE IS A DOSE OF DECN's FINANCIAL REALITY! Without far more than $10mm in trade debt financing this ship is not going to sale! What's more, the funding is needed to buy raw materials and components before Kit #1 is ever produced! Given DECN's very ugly Balance Sheet, it seems quite clear the raw materials and the meter components will only be purchased on a "cash-in-advance" basis, which further indicates the need for far more than a $10mm revolving line of credit! Using the Company's historic average gross margin, DECN would be lucky to get 500,000 kits done with $10,000,000 and once the $10 mil LOC is used up, DECN is done until the kit buyers pay their bills! Guess what! DECN's accounts receivables currently shows a DSO of nearly 180 days! Yep, it takes DECN's customers an AVERAGE of 180 days to pay their invoices!

Given the Company's bleak financial situation, DECN does not exactly have a ton of leverage in trying to negotiate some sort of special relationship with a well financed partner!