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DimesForShares

04/09/20 5:23 PM

#186535 RE: qazart #186506

"So when is it over?"

Good question that no one has the answer to at this point. SARS had very poor human-to-human transmission, which limited the spread of the disease and allowed us to wipe it out. Covid-19 has much better person-to-person spread. This can't be eradicated so easily.

The first step will be the widespread availability of rapid testing. I had a friend die on Monday who had heart problems. The doctor at his side said he didn't think it was related to covid-19: no fever, no aches, pains, etc. But they took a sample for testing. His wife won't know for 3 weeks what the results are because testing is so backed up. She has gone into self-quarantine. We badly need the ability to test more people and get the results quickly.

Once we have good access to testing, we can start tracking pockets of infection, assuming things don't get out of hand because people think it is safe. Tracking and quarantining can perhaps eliminate all cases of the disease, but it's a tough process.

Next comes a vaccine. That will prevent things from getting out of hand. Covid-19 may come back, but if there is widespread herd immunity from the vaccine, it won't spread like wildfire. At that point covid-19 will be, at worst, a managed disease like the flu.