I had made a global Covid-19 simulator/forecast a couple weeks ago and also came to the conclusion that we should peak for global cases in about 2 weeks. Interesting to find other groups reaching the same conclusion.
My key caveat in my forecast is the fact that there are people in the US not taking the situation seriously even in the worst his states, e.g NY, and that so far India seems to have relatively few cases. If it kicks off there who know where the numbers will go.
USA counts for 27% of global cases, more than the bottom 169 countries together. Once Italy, Spain and the USA get their numbers under control we should be in much better straits in-terms of new daily daily cases. For new daily cases, Italy already peaked last week, Spain appears to be peaking now. USA is a disaster, but should peak in the next two weeks, barring aforementioned caveat. US new cases per day alone is more than the new cases coming out of the next 19 worst hit countries.
All this said, I'd think it more valid for Cellularity to make a trial against pneumonia as per what Gary mentions, as having a specific indication in Covid-19 might help with PR, and with some of the severe cases, but at 86 people, they're not going to be helping many people, and then, given that they will need to do a follow-up placebo controlled study, means that by the time they actually get a formal approval for Covid-19, the disease will be largely done and gone, and with low likelihood that we will see it again. SARS didn't come back and we haven't seen the swine flu since the 2009 pandemic.
I highly doubt the virus will be largely infecting new people past end April, just as the seasonal flu virus will die down then too. It's a matter of the environment being inhospitable to such viruses.
Aside from the US large numbers of new cases, we're starting to see drops in new cases in other hotspots. So having the Covid-19 indication will be useless in another 2-3 months which is by when the secondary trials will probably start at the fastest pace. However might be interesting to see how the cells perform in general. Meanwhile on a positive note we're reaching up to almost 20,000 people out of hospital per day. Currently reaching our highest level of 15% of globally infected people out of hospital. This % will increase over the coming weeks, barring again the USA and India caveats.