As always, I have an opinion about retraces also. LOL
The retrace pattern I look for is the FIBs 61/50% retrace point. Here's why. It's once again an eval of the retail mindset.
I find the cherry on top of any TA & chart evaluation is will retail support what I see in the charts & indicators?
When a run comes, emotion takes over. When the emotion stops, retail must find a true fair market value!
Here comes the FIBs, I call the indicator the run emotion indicator, along with the continuing volume support.
I want to see a 50% adjustment. But most of the time emotion continues it past to 61%. Finnally it balances out at 50%, where it should be.
If I see the retrace go past 61% to 75% or 100% it tells me, the retail herd was taken. Normal emotion spike, deserves logical 50% middle settle point. This not being supported, indicates to me outside pressure.
I feel if there was no manipulation, every run would work like this. So when it retraces past 61% it's trouble for the play to continue the FLAG chart pattern, of run retrace, run retrace, run retrace.
But opens up a possibility of the run to change from run, to up channel climb. 100% retraces seem to create up channel bottom & top line points.
Will try to find old charts showing this, but flag run/50/61% retraces tend to form continuious runs. And run 100% retraces, slower up channel climbs or a breakdown without needed support.
I have not heard of the 75% retrace rule, but here's what my experiences has seen about the succesful FLAG run/retrace pattern.
Oct to Nov = 1 month flag run chart, with 61% retraces.
This one shows the 100% retraces with support to create the up channel. Any one of the 100% flags could have broken down without support. Higher risk level to trade the up channel on flags. Then just short FLAG runs.
I like the flag play. Don't trust, but will play if TA says to, on the ones with over 61% FIBs retraces.
'cha-ching' Looking at your chart link, also reminded me of another subject. Making gain swings in a up or down channel stock.
You have a down channel, with many 20% swing trades in it!
The chart at the bottom shows how to eval swing possibilities and how you can make swing gains in both directions. A channel is a channel! Think about that!
according to the chart...I have notice DANG has been chanelling...just like it is supposed to see chart of DNAG:
do you have any other comments about the future charting of DNAG....?
Yes, you can swing trade it in an up or down channel!!! The pattern is not my comfort zone play any longer though. It's a been there done that pattern. Of the past for me. Worked well, just didn't feel comfortable!
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