The researchers say patients suffering from other diseases will face increased risk as well. “In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the U.S. will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care,” they say.
If the forecast proves correct, that suggests a dramatic upswing in the U.S. outbreak. Today’s figures from the Coronavirus Research Center at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine show nearly 1,200 U.S. deaths to date due to COVID-19, out of more than 82,000 confirmed cases.
The global death toll has risen above 23,000, with 523,000 confirmed cases worldwide. Just today, the United States took the top spot on JHU’s nation-by-nation tally of confirmed cases, surpassing China and Italy.
The UW team’s predictions are couched in statistical caveats. For example, the death toll projection of 81,114 has a 95% confidence interval of 7,977 to 251,059 deaths.
Additional travel restrictions and social distancing policies could make a difference in states that haven’t taken such measures so far. But based on the modeling, the most urgent measures would be to boost available beds and medical supplies — by reducing the demand for medical services not related to COVID-19, and increasing system capacity by any means possible.
“These are urgently needed, given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away,” the researchers say.
Update for 11 a.m. PT March 27: During a March 26 briefing, Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, stressed the efforts being made to ensure that the worst-case scenario won’t happen.
“To make the implication that when [patients] need a hospital bed, it’s not going to be there, or when they need that ventilator, it’s not going to be there — we don’t have evidence of that right now … It’s our collective job to make sure that doesn’t happen,” she said.
The next few weeks will tell the tale on that front. In the meantime, the UW researchers will continue to update their projections at COVID19.Healthdata.org. As of March 27, the unmet need at the peak is projected to amount to 49,292 hospital beds, 14,612 ICU beds and 18,767 ventilators. Projected death toll through Aug. 4 is still 81,114.
The preprint research paper, “Forecasting COVID-19 Impact on Hospital Bed-Days, ICU-Days, Ventilator-Days and Deaths by US State in the Next Four Months,” comes from the IHME COVID-19 Health Service Utilization Forecasting Team under the direction of UW Professor Christopher J.L. Murray.
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