IMO you are mostly right but the problem is not so much how many dead in the end (however morbid that sounds, I know), but overloading hospitals at once. The death rate goes up if hospitals are too full to treat people properly. That also means other people who come in for my other emergency- car wreck, heart attack, cancer, etc., encounter less care available and thus a higher death rate than they normally would have. People panic when they can’t see a doctor right away in an emergency.