Replies to post #594952 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Potty]

Yup, going to be very disruptive indeed. Probably for a long time, i.e. 3-4 months...

Not sure whether the travel lockdowns really help once the cat is out of the bag

[contrarian bull]

I think the mortality rate is more like 1%. Remember that the deaths get attention, the people home with "the flu" don't.

If the entire US population got the virus and 1% died - that would only take 1% off of GDP. Probably less since many who die will have been retired or not working yet.

Bottom line - this will have a smaller effect than say a 1 week shutdown of business which would be a 2% reduction in GDP.

So stop worrying!

The impact on housing will be even less. As I said most victims are not in the prime home buying age bracket. Maybe a good time to rotate into Service Corporation (SCI) though.

Coronavirus is far more transmissable than the flu.

2-3% death rate with 100 million cases = 2 - 3 million deaths. That will make it hard to reach that 4% GDP we were promised

[Donotunderstand]

4% GDP was toast before it was promised

3% was a crazy stretch and given up on 9 months ago (in part because LEGAL immigration is down 35% !! so how do you grow GDP without workers)

2.5% was the most recent goal

2% is the current sort of rate (BO last four years rate - DJT rate for three years net the GOOSE from Trillion dollar stimulus program )

1.5% is what I am reading today

A GOOD article noted MUCH of what is lost (not in a GDP or produced) in a quarter is made up the next quarter -- so volatility increases quarter to quarter ----

yet the article noted that some activity - especially in US which is consumer not Export oriented --- is GONE - the movie we did not see the road trip we did not take - McD and sports and .. and … that loss is not made up and could give us an ugly Q2 as in < 1% growth in GDP annualized