Replies to post #68735 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[southacresdave]

cliff.... the 80% mild number has been going around for the last week. I couldn't find any real science oriented sight off the bat, but a quick look showed CNBC cites it plus has an article where they break down how deadly it is by age (obviously the older you are the riskier it is. The younger you are the more mild it is):

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-is-more-fatal-in-men-than-women-major-study-suggests.html

China isn't the risk. China has the ability to isolate 11M people or more in a region and force them indoors till the problem settles down. If the whole world could go indoors for 1 month the problem would go away! The risk is if hotspots form in other countries where citizens actually have rights (ex. Italy) or in countries that have little control (i.e Iran and the Middle East) or in countries that have top quality medical care (ex. South Korea) then you get it going everywhere and it just is a game of whack-a-mole. You squash it in one spot (maybe) and it just starts elsewhere. Once it's in Africa or South America how do you contain it?

On the market, two things:

1. Coronavirus is a potential black swan for the election. It opens the door to Trump losing because he is obviously not the most reassuring president in a crisis. Right now Bernie is the top guy for the Dems. If the door opens even slightly for him to win, the market will not like it.

2. The market is still 8-10% above it's 52 week low. The real question is why was it so high?

Do I think this blows over in a week? Again, China is not the country to look at it. It's the other ones that matter. If South Korea can't contain it, then the US will struggle too. Here is the best link to track that:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm not being super negative. I obviously don't want a pandemic. However, there are reasons why the risk factor is inching up. Hopefully all countries start to take this more seriously than they are and the crisis is averted.

[southacresdave]

Coronavirus: for investors here's a great link to track. It's connected to the WHO database:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Imo, the number to look at is not China. The number to look at is outside China. Outside China was under 200 people on February 1rst. It's now at 2900. These are probably the most accurate numbers of all. The number of countries keeps growing. It's still not worrisome, but you can see where South Korea, Iran, and Italy have popped up. If the non-China cases flattens then the market will remove the risk for sure and recover. If it keeps growing geometrically (i.e. is 20K a month from now) then be careful as there may be more risk than calculated in yet. China can control it's population and force them to isolate themselves. The rest of the world can't do it as easily.

The reality is the market needed to pull back no matter what. It's healthy. Maybe this just gives it an excuse, ends up being nothing, and goes to new highs. I'd vote for that.