Replies to post #592335 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

FMCC GAAP BV is $9 bn
NWS Overpayment is $11 bn
2020 Earnings est $7 bn

12/31/20 est BV with $11 bn settlement is $27 bn or $8.30
12/31/20 est BV is $4.92 without settlement
Today $2.77BV - with $0.30 increase in BV with every $1 bn of earnings or net settlement proceeds or DTA adjustment.

You're including warrant shares but not shares from a junior-to-common conversion, or more importantly from the SPO. Until those share counts are known, these kinds of calculations are not useful.

My framework, with what I believe are reasonable assumptions about size of SPO, future market cap, and the demands of the SPO investors, leads to a final share count of around 37B for FnF combined, or 20 times the current total. You can put your own numbers in to see what other scenarios look like.

Right now FMCC is earning approximately 15% ROI on Conservatorship Capital.

We already know what Freddie's earnings are, so all this tells us is what their Conservatorship Capital number is (I think it works out to around $52B). However, Conservatorship Capital is meaningless because Calabria's capital rule will overwrite it.