Replies to post #2798 on Spectrum Pharmaceutecals Inc (SPPI)

[antihama]

Neulasta 4Qtr US sales were $583M down 5.8% from the $619M in the 3rd Q. So taking my previous calculation of 371M/yr and reducing it by 6% that comes out to 350M/yr of Rolontis sales assuming taking 15% of the Neulasta market. The neutropenia market is actually the Neulasta and biosimilar market but just I'm using Neulasta as a rough yardstick in coming up w a projection. The third biosim, Ziextenzo, was approved in early Nov so lets say it was on the market in Dec. so you can expect the overall market for Neutropenia to go below $3B in sales and I could see $2.5B or below after the dust settles.

[antihama]

Actually, the total neutropenia market was $3.3B in the third Q of 2019. Coherus mentioned during their 3rd Q 2019 earnings CC that Neulasta had 75% of the market. We also know Neulasta sales came in at $619M so that means the total market was 3.3B. So the SPPI Presentation slide that indicates the market is greater than $3B is not fiction.

In my previous post I was guessing that w Neulasta sales of 583M, down 5.8% from the previous Q, Neulasta’s market share was 69% in the 4thQ

I'm using Neulasta as a rough yardstick in coming up w a projection

but that can’t be right because if I did the same calculation as above using $583M and 69% market share I would get a total neutropenia market of 3.4B. I would guess that the total market has slipped some although here’s an interesting comment from the Coherus CC

I would also note that we have seen growth in the overall pegfilgrastim marketplace, suggesting that biosimilar entrants have increased patient access.

If I use 73% as my denominator, I get a total market of $3.2B. So it seems Neulasta still has ~73% market share plus or minus 1% and Spectrum can keep on using that slide in their Presentation.