Replies to post #1028 on Green Thumb Industries Inc (GTBIF)

[FUNMAN]

1 Reason Marijuana Stocks Could Bounce Back in 2020
The political winds could shift regarding U.S. legalization.

By: Jeremy Bowman
Dec 31, 2019 at 6:30AM

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/31/reason-marijuana-stocks-could-bounce-back-in-2020.aspx

2019 was rough for cannabis stocks -- and the investors who held them -- due to a number of factors.

The bubble that grew ahead of Canada's legalization of marijuana in October 2018 burst this year. Investors grew less willing to overlook the wide losses that many companies in the industry are experiencing, and an oversupply of marijuana led to falling prices. Meanwhile, there has been little progress toward legalization at the federal level in the U.S., and the industry remains highly fragmented, meaning there will likely be more losers than winners.

Many of the best-known pot stocks, including Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC), Aurora Cannabis, Tilray, and Cronos Group, as well as the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF, fell sharply this year.

However, the momentum could shift in 2020 as the U.S. presidential election could generate pressure in Washington for legalization.

The impact of an election

It's no secret that conditions in the marijuana industry are politically driven. After all, without legal medical marijuana or recreational pot in Canada, cannabis stocks wouldn't exist, and the Canadian marijuana industry would be much smaller if recreational weed was still illegal north of the border. In the U.S., cannabis-derivative stocks like New Age Beverages popped when the 2018 farm bill was passed, legalizing hemp.

According to the Pew Research Center, two-thirds of Americans support legalizing marijuana for medical use, as do a majority of voters in both political parties -- 55% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats. And 59% of those polled said they favor legalizing recreational marijuana.

In other words, the public support is there to legalize recreational pot nationwide. Today, recreational weed is legal in 10 states, with Illinois set to legalize it in 2020, plus the District of Columbia. Only one state in recent years, Arizona, has voted against allowing marijuana for personal consumption, by a slim margin of 2.6 percentage points. When the issue has come up on the ballot, voters have almost always chosen to legalize.

With a Republican in the White House for the last three years, the issue has stalled at the federal level, but nearly all the 2020 Democratic candidates have expressed support for legal marijuana. Former Vice President Joe Biden, something of an outlier, said he only wants to decriminalize it.

Though it's likely to take more than just a pot-friendly president to achieve federal legalization, any visible progress toward that end should energize pot stocks, as the U.S. market is nearly 10 times the size of Canada's. Investors should also remember that political shifts can happen fairly quickly. Gay marriage went from being illegal everywhere in the U.S. to fully legal in a little more than 10 years. After a number of states allowed it, the Supreme Court made it legal in a 5-4 decision in 2015. A similar process could play out in this case.

Which pot stocks would win if the U.S. legalized marijuana?

While Canadian pot stocks have captured the bulk of investors' attention so far, a different set of stocks could benefit if weed becomes legal at the federal level in the U.S.

Dispensary operators including Green Thumb Industries (OTC:GTBIF) and Curaleaf Holdings (OTC:CURLF) -- which own dozens of locations in both recreational and medical states -- could have an edge. These chains are already building their brands with consumers nationally thanks to marijuana tourism -- many people from states where pot isn't legal have encountered them during visits to states where it is.

Elsewhere, Acreage Holdings (OTC:ACRGF) also presents an appealing opportunity for investors. It's one of the biggest U.S. growers, thanks to a slew of acquisitions, and the company already has a sale agreement in place, pending U.S. legalization: Canopy Growth agreed to acquire it for $3.4 billion when and if that day comes. Given Acreage's current market value of just $517 million, that acquisition price represents a premium of more than 500% That, in turn, also makes Canopy and its own partner Constellation Brands, the distributor of Corona, potential winners on legalization. Canopy is already Canada's biggest pot company and can capitalize on Constellation's own marketing, distribution, and beverage expertise as derivatives continue to be a valuable slice of the marijuana market.

U.S. pot companies generally trade at much cheaper valuations than their Canadian peers, giving them greater upside potential.


What's next?

Marijuana legalization has received little attention thus far in the presidential campaign, but that doesn't mean the issue has been forgotten. Considering that the younger generations in the U.S. overwhelmingly support it, the question around legalization appears to be more a matter of when it will occur rather than if.

When the general election campaign heats up, keep your eye on the poll numbers. If a pot-friendly candidate is leading, marijuana stocks, especially those with U.S. exposure, should get a strong boost.

[FUNMAN]

Green Thumb Industries Inc (OTCMKTS:GTBIF) Could be on the “Rise” Again

By James Hudson - January 1, 2020

To see the graphs read at this link:

https://oracledispatch.com/2020/01/01/green-thumb-industries-inc-otcmktsgtbif-could-be-on-the-rise-again/

Shares of Green Thumb Industries Inc (OTCMKTS:GTBIF) could be interesting after the company just announced it will open Rise New Castle, its ninth retail location in Pennsylvania and 36th in the nation, on December 17. According to the release, Rise currently has locations in Carlisle, Erie, Hermitage, King of Prussia, Latrobe, Mechanicsburg, Steelton and York. GTI entered the Pennsylvania market in 2017 and operates a manufacturing facility in Danville where the company produces branded products, including its flagship Rythm brand.

“We are honored to open our ninth Rise store in Pennsylvania and to be the first medical cannabis retailer in New Castle,” said GTI Founder and Chief Executive Officer Ben Kovler. “We look forward to bringing high quality cannabis products and a customer-first retail experience to more patients in the state.”

Green Thumb Industries Inc (OTCMKTS:GTBIF) bills itself as a company that manufactures and sells various cannabis products in the United States. The company’s cannabis products include flower, concentrates for dabbing and vaporizing, edibles, and topicals.

The company markets its products through third-party retailers. It also owns and operates a chain of 50 retail stores under the RISE dispensaries name. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.


According to company materials, “Green Thumb Industries (GTI), a national cannabis cultivator, processor and dispensary operator, is dedicated to providing dignified access to safe and effective cannabis nationwide while giving back to the communities in which they serve. As a vertically integrated company, GTI manufactures and sells a well-rounded suite of branded cannabis products including flower, concentrates, edibles, and topicals. The company also owns and operates a rapidly growing national chain of retail cannabis stores called RISE(TM) dispensaries. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, GTI has seven manufacturing facilities and licenses for 50 retail locations across seven highly regulated U.S. markets. Established in 2014, GTI employs more than 350 people and serves hundreds of thousands of patients and customers each year. GTI was named a Best Workplace 2018 by Crain’s Chicago Business.”

As noted above, GTBIF just announced it will open Rise New Castle, its ninth retail location in Pennsylvania and 36th in the nation, on December 17.

While this is a clear factor, it has been incorporated into a trading tape characterized by a pretty dominant offer, which hasn’t been the type of action GTBIF shareholders really want to see. In total, over the past five days, shares of the stock have dropped by roughly -2% on above average trading volume. All in all, not a particularly friendly tape, but one that may ultimately present some new opportunities. In addition, the company has registered increased average transaction volume recently, with the past month seeing 27% over what the stock has registered over the longer term.

“We are excited about this project and would like to welcome Rise™, an experienced cannabis operator, to Lawrence County,” said Lawrence County Regional Chamber of Commerce Investor Relations Coordinator Erin Orrico. “Patients in the Pennsylvania medical program will certainly benefit from this new location.”

At this time, carrying a capital value in the market of $1.03B, GTBIF has about $117M in cash on the books, which is balanced by about $83M in total current liabilities. The company has pulled in $114M in trailing twelve-month revenues, representing 228% growth on a quarterly y/y basis.

[FUNMAN]

See Blue: Now they have to get harvests out of these facility. That's going to take time.

Medical pot growers just got bigger

All now approved for recreational marijuana

By Peter Hancock,
Capitol News Illinois

https://www.illinoistimes.com/springfield/medical-pot-growers-just-got-bigger/Content?oid=11665450

Less than two weeks before adult-use recreational marijuana became legal in Illinois, the state Department of Agriculture announced that all 21 cultivation centers that have been licensed to grow medical marijuana are now licensed also to grow for adult use.

The final three companies to be approved were Bedford Grow LLC, in Bedford Park, IL Grow Medicine LLC in Elk Grove Village and JG IL LLC in Edgewood.

Under the marijuana legalization law passed during the 2019 legislative session, cultivation centers already licensed to grow medical marijuana were allowed to apply for early approval of licenses to grow for adult use.

Other applicants will have an opportunity to apply for licenses in an upcoming phase of the implementation process, with priority going to "social equity applicants" – generally, applicants from communities "disproportionately impacted" by the war on drugs, or individuals with previous arrests or convictions for minor marijuana violations.

In addition to the three companies whose approvals were announced Dec. 23, the department said in a news release that the other 18 cultivation centers include:

• Ataraxia - Albion • Compass Ventures, Inc. - Litchfield • Cresco Labs, LLC - Joliet • Cresco Labs, LLC - Kankakee • Cresco Labs, LLC - Lincoln • Curative Health Cultivation, LLC - Aurora • GTI Oglesby, LLC - Oglesby • GTI Rock Island, LLC - Rock Island • IESO, LLC - Carbondale • InGown Farms - Freeport • Nature's Grace and Wellness, LLC - Vermont • PharmaCann, LLC - Dwight • PharmaCann, LLC - Hillcrest • Progressive Treatment Solutions - East St. Louis • Revolution Cannabis, LLC (DBA Ascend Illinois) - Barry • Revolution Cannabis, LLC – Delavan • Shelby County Community Service - Shelbyville • Wellness Group Pharms, LLC – Anna

[FUNMAN]

Niles Dispensary To ‘Rise’ This Summer

By Tom Robb
on January 07, 2020

https://www.journal-topics.com/articles/niles-dispensary-to-rise-this-summer/

I know this location. It's at Golf Rd and N. Milwaukee Ave right by my cousin's house :-) It's very densely populated around there with heavy vehicular traffic. - FUNMAN

Niles development department officials have given conditional approval for a recreational marijuana dispensary to open in the village, likely by mid-summer.

The dispensary would be called Rise, located at 9621 N. Milwaukee Ave. in the former Pearle Vision Center.

Rise would be operated by Green Thumb Industries through 3C Compassionate Care Centers, a limited liability corporation. Village officials said Green Thumb operates 96 retail locations nationwide, operating as Rise and Essence, including an existing Rise medical marijuana dispensary in Naperville.

The location in the 9600 block of Milwaukee is in the northwest recreational marijuana zoning district Niles trustees approved late last year. The other zone is located at the far southeast end of the village. Each zone is limited to one dispensary each.

The way the zoning was established, recreational marijuana dispensaries do not require village board approval, but are approved administratively by the community development department.

The nearest operating dispensary to Niles is Zen Leaf located in the 6400 block of Milwaukee Avenue in Chicago, only a few blocks from Niles’ southern border.