Replies to post #38667 on Biotech Values

[upndown1313]

excellent example of how not to run clinical trials....I am sure AZN has stepped in and will look after their investment

[gofishmarko]

re : AGIX

If you buy , think about selling some covered calls. If you sold the Jan 15s @ $1.50 , your net cost on your shares would be reduced to about $10.50. At that point I'd be thrilled if my shares were called away at $15.00. If not , I'd then sell
more calls if prices are still comparable to current levels.

Not a rec to buy , BTW. I don't know anything about AGIX.

[iwfal]

AGIX background:

Encouraging - but not wildly:

a) The Ph ii trials showed some promise in IVUS. CART I, which was primarily about restenosis in a PCI'd area, showed stat sig in most of the PCI'd segments, and strong trend in the reference segments. CART II showed favorable trends that would appear to be of clinical significance (but no one really understands how to translate IVUS measurements into MACE rates)

b) 1067 is based upon Probucol - which has a long history of being approximately as effective as statins at slowing MACE (but was pulled from the US due to Qct issues - which 1067 does not exhibit).

c) MPO showed a strong decrease (a strong cardiac inflamatory marker - similar to CRP although CRP didn't actually show a decrease)

d) Moderately strong insider buying


Interesting:

a) The blended event rate was released and is equal too or better than even the treated event rates in PROVE-IT and IDEAL. However this data is not encouraging (or discouraging) because the SoC changed substantially between PROVEIT and IDEAL and the 1067 trial (ARISE) with the use of Drug Eluting Stents.


Management Metrics:

a) It has taken forever for Atherogenics to publish their CART-II data

b) CART-II analysis was really mishandled

That should at least provide a start.