1Best, regarding COT
I don't know the definition of Large/Small Spec.
but the total sum of Inflow/Outflow = 0
your COT charts shows Net Commitments of Traders, not the volume.
Could the large Spec increase their numbers of commitment but reduce the size of each of each commitment? I'm not sure about this subject, sorry
Also, Commercials increasing their sell positions since end of October could be trying to capture their gain from their summer purchase (since May), not sure, just a thought :)