Replies to post #2297 on Calypte Biomedical Corp (fka CBMC)

[AxiomOne]

I'd play with only the amount you can afford to lose. Very high reward, but very high risk. I really think the funding is there (I'm not worried about that). I'm just worried as to whether they can ramp up their revenue to somewhere in the 2-3 million range each quarter.

[bloodhound99]

Investor

As perhaps the harshest critic of Calypte management let me agree somewhat with Axiom.

1.I believe Marr will come to the table one last time with funding.

With China approval of their rapid oral test imminent (it could actually happen on Monday 12-4-2006, but will probabaly be a little longer), I am sure that Marr will keep CBMC funded awaiting that approval. At that point the stock price should enjoy an upward surge and Marr can decide whether to sell some of their stock or not.

2. I too agree that approvals are not the main problem for CBMC, but sales are.

While Calypte is correct to "sell" the advantages of rapid oral over rapid blood in ease and safety of use, unfortunately Calypte's rapid oral test is 3 times the cost of the rapid blood tests, and rapid blood tests are the "standard" in todays market.

At this point there have been zero sales of the rapid oral test to any government entity anywhere despite the string of approvals that began 18 months ago.

The only "sales" made so far have been 35,500 test kits to Mineseeker (strangely this is the only order out of a million test annual commitment made in June 2006 by Mineseeker) and 125,000 tests "stocking orders" to their UAE distributor since the approval there in January or February 2006.

Calypte should be congratulated on getting approvals in several countries especially Over The Counter (OTC) approval of their rapid oral test in UAE and Russia. I believe that they will eventaully get it in China and India as well (after all the test DOES WORK). Question is, will any government pay 3 times the price of the rapid blood test to buy Calypte's tests. Or can Calypte find enough of a consumer (OTC) market in these contries to survive.

On the approval side however it should be pointed out that

1. Calypte has no test approved for sale in the US (requires FDA approval). They used to own FDA approved lab tests but gave those away to Maxim Biomedical last year at this time. And at this time it does not appear Calypte has submitted any tests to FDA for approval.

2. While having obtained approvals in a few countries, Calypte does not have an approval by the World Health Organization (WHO) for any of their tests. At this time most countries buy their rapid HIV tests in bulk from WHO approved companies through their bulk procurement program. Calypte has said that it is their intention to get WHO approval but it is not clear whether they have even applied to WHO for approval on their rapid tests.(It doesn't appear so, but a call to Tim Clemensen might clear this up.)

3. Calypte's rapid tests are now manufactured solely in Thailand by a "contract" manufacturer. Amazingly Calypte's rapid tests are not approved in Thailand nor does it appear that Calypte has even applied for approval there (add this question of why to the one above for Tim Clemensen). What makes this omission even more glaring is that many countries will not approve any test in their country that is not approved in the manufacturing country.

and then there is that April 2007 event upcoming as well.