SSK - SVC - I'm not convinced that old hotels are worth as much as new hotels .... there are plenty of old hotels that need MAJOR capital investment to keep them appealing and others that have to be torn down - in which case they have negative value due to demolition expense, lol. I did however state previously that overall depreciation may be overstated, so I agree with you on that, but it's difficult to quantify.
Yes, SVC has been modestly increasing the distribution, up 8% in 5 years, but in REAL inflation adjusted terms that's near ZERO. So I called it flattish.
MPW has raised its distrbution by 19% over the past 5 years, well ahead of inflation.
NAV is frequently mentioned by analysts in evaluating REITs and it's difficult to put a fair market value on hotels. If you did a mathematical regression analysis on stock price versus NAV I think there would some correlation. The only question is how strong. Possibly it would be weak for property REITs since fair value may be higher than book value.
SVC has underperformed the S&P (including dividend reinvestment) over the past 5 years, and I don't see that changing. It does look a bit oversold on the chart, so maybe a 5% to 10% bounce will be happening in the coming months, but that would be a selling opportunity, imho. Good luck.
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