Replies to post #226787 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

NKTR-214 addendum: Even if the SITC melanoma data are modestly bullish for NKTR (as I contend), they might be modestly bearish for BMY.

If Opdivo + NKTR-214 eventually gains commercial traction in melanoma, it could come at the expense of Opdivo + (low-dose) Yervoy usage in that setting. BMY owns 35% of the net profits on NKTR-214, but 100% of the net profits on Yervoy.

[dewophile]

I concede defeat on the semantics here. However a CR w a PD-1 in melanoma is pretty much tantamount to a cure so continuing to maintain a CR in the same cohort doesn't tell you much. what you need are more patients, not patient-years of data.

Here is 5 year pembro data in melanoma (single agent):

in the treatment-naive population, BOR was CR in 38 patients (25%)... Of the 38 patients who achieved CR, median time to response was 2.8?months (range: 2.5–8.3), and median duration of response was NR (range: 6.0+ to 60.8+ months). Response was ongoing in 35 patients (92%) at the time of data cut-off

https://academic.oup.com/annonc/article/30/4/582/5305016

so after 5 years! CRs were ongoing in 92% of patients. So not losing a CR between a 12 month cutoff and 18 months in this setting to me is totally expected