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11/09/19 8:12 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Nov. 8, 2019: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5724 and is trading up about 26% for the year from last year's closing of 4541. This price action here in November is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 5788 intraday and is still trading above that high of 5692.
As of now, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bullish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 10 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 119% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8171 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4051 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
A possible change in trend appears due come December in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 5099 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 5799 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 6338 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 5122 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during September on the Monthly level at 6338 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 5284 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 5060 on a closing basis.
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