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Replies to post #29493 on Market Direction and Stock Trends
11/02/19 10:31 AM
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Nov. 1, 2019: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2734736 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's closing of 2332746. This price action here in November is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 2734743 intraday and is still trading above that high of 2720436.
Up to now, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.
During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2818645 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 1881635 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 2574346 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 2720436 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Critical support still underlies this market at 2606258 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 10 months. The previous low of 2171253 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 2597822 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during July on the Monthly level at 2739868 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend.
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