Pretty high in my opinion. Keep in mind that in first 25 percent of patients only 5 of 19 patients in control arm had a CR and I believe one died because of “non relapse” problems. Thus, at most, you have 4 of 19 patients potentially making it to six months (durable CR at six months is the primary)
We know that 18 of 18 made it to transplant, had no blasts, etc. We also know that there was no “no relapse” deaths at day 100 I believe.
I am oversimplifying but one way to think about it is that 100 percent of patients on active drug have a chance to make it to 6 months while only about 20 percent on control do. What is unknown is how many “relapse” deaths have occurred and how many patients in active will still be in morphological CR at six months. However, to me at least, the active arm is in a much better position from a numbers standpoint because we know that control can do no better than 20 percent (as of 25 percent enrollment)
My 2 cents.
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