"and the administration was already motivated to complete recap and release" ... how do you conclude that?
This part is okay; Calabria has talked about building capital at FnF many times, and the administration has expressed a desire to end the conservatorships.
and what makes you think a RRR will be good for common even if it does happen "soon"?
But this is a darn good question. The usual answer is some mixture of hope, wishful thinking, and WAGing.