Replies to post #332047 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jakedogman1]

I listened to the ASM..... basic blocking and tackling and building the biz... they have folks that know what they are doing and putting the platform together.... takes time but I think they are getting there.... my second take was there is no urgency to create a higher sp? no desire to promote progress of IP...

If you are setting up team w/ options and readjusting workforce participation per mention in last call, a lower sp works for the interim... given the past crew really took care of themselves in option land and avid was probably the red haired stepchild, it could be a smart move to get folks some equity going forward.... helps in retention also i think accumulation is going on while under the radar...

I heard confirmation of three commercial process validations... per last two cc's, they were completed for existing clients halo and roche... halo had three phase 3's close to the commercialization phase.... darzelex sc... filed w fda july, roche's phase 3 success and filing early 2020 and halo's own drug w/ celgene... readout in dec....

Darzelex is already a $4 bil drug w/ 4 hr infusion times... the sc version should fly of the shelves with 5 min infusion time and capture a big chunk of mkt share... and Janssen has 6 phase 3's with Halo going on and numerous other clients w/ trials...

So the real inflection point won't happen until more visibility on the halo activity.... given the mention of downstream capabilities with regard to client needs, fill and finish could be in the cards...

So we are six months out but we also have a larger institutional base and more analyst coverage that will sniff out the progress as it unfolds.. all imo

[vinmantoo]

Many LONGS with 6 figure losses, sad that this investment will be our legacy of investing futility. Grave stone marker reads: PPHM/CDMO coulda,shoulda,woulda made me rich......

Sadly that isn't unique with PPHM/CDMO. It happens to everyone at some point. It sure happened to me early in my investment career and I can tell you that I often think of that and my foolish greed. It is easy to get caught up in the hype and side with the pumpers and dismiss or even attack the naysayers without really heeding their warnings. To my shame, that is what I did. If you learn from your mistakes then it can be valuable lesson.

The biggest lesson I learned is preservation of capital. You can get into speculative early stage stocks but you have to start peeling off shares at times when the stock price goes up. The goal must be to get back all money you initially invested so you are playing with house money. Dreams of untold riches are great but don't get too greedy as it is better to make less than you could have than to lose more than you can afford. It is even better to book some profits while you peel off some shares. You can also buy back some shares if the stock drops a lot if you consider the drop unwarranted, as long as it is only some the profit you booked or only a small part of the initial investment you recouped. This can be done in cycles to significantly increase your shares without increasing your risk of loss.

Good luck.