Replies to post #293 on Eros Media World PLC (EMWP)

[finesand]

Little Compilation of DD

(to debate, consideration)

Since short seller attack and CARE rating drop in June:

- 20-F: Sarbanes oxley (SOX) compliance
- 20-F: Increased institutional holdings

- 1Q20 ER https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191008005513/en/
- Already cash flow positive with small profits in last quarter
- Forecasts to become free cash flow positive by year end

- Partnerships with OnePlus TV, WASU Media, Jio
- WASU
-- https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/eros-now-announces-china-vod-distribution-deal-with-wasu-media-2019-08-19
-- https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/wasu-media-holding

- Partnership with Microsoft Azure: AI Dubbing + Seamless video platform

- Laal Kaptaan anticipation and release October 2019

- Strategic Review with CITI
-- About to close a pending deal (CC: Lawyers told CEO to STFU until its done)

- CARE upgrade in 30-60 days or so

- Debt buyer of 2017 and 2019 a mysterium, Reliance/Jio?
- $25M Note conversion $3.59/sh or VWAP after 4 month (50/50 potential)
- Reliance Short Trap: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/master-move-how-dhirubhai-ambani-turned-the-tables-on-the-kolkata-bear-cartel/articleshow/9059587.cms

+++

1Q20 Ending 2019-06-30, as stated on 2019-10-07
- OS 137M (fully diluted class A + B as of 2019-09-06 ???)
- Total Cash $81M
- Current Receivables $209M
-- Fair value $130M
-- Amortised cost $79M
- Current Assets $299M
- Current Liabilities $263M
- Working Capital $36M
- Cash + 50% net current receivables = $186M
-- NCAV $-77.5M
- Total Assets $1051M
- Total Liabilities $372M
- Equity $679M or $4.96/sh
- Net cash generated from operating activities $10M

EV calculus using Total Liabilities:
OS 137M (fully diluted class A + B)
MCAP-1 137M x $1.40 = $192M
MCAP-2 137M x $4.00 = $548M
Total Liabilities $372M
Total Cash $81M
EV-1 $483M
EV-2 $839M

"For the full fiscal year 2020, we are forecasting consolidated revenue in the range of $200 million-220 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $80 million – 95 million and net debt in the range of $100 million – 110 million."

Using revenue full year $200M as the lower end.

1) EV/R 2.42, P/S 0.96 (mcap-1 $192M, 137M sh x $1.40/sh)
2) EV/R 4.20, P/S 2.74 (mcap-3 $548M, 137M sh x $4.00/sh) ****

Also https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/EROS/financials/cash-flow/quarter (1q20 not yet included)