Replies to post #85887 on Lehman Brothers Financial SA (LEHNQ)

[stockmojo9]

fritz,

In the first case, I assumed commons would have nothing.

In the second, I allocated 3% of the 51% equity holder share.

Common share payout may only occur if NOL increases from $55B due to the POR that provided there would be no COD as requested in the letter to the IRS.

In that event, the tax impound account would increase for both Debt & Equity on discharge.

This is what the Claims Sale is all about: Lehman Senior Claim Holders have received distributions on their claims and are selling the remaining position based on what they estimate the discharge value would be. The larger the NOL amount, the more valuable the claim since the COD is not available according to the POR.

There is still a remaining possibility the Debt Holders move on with the subs with 49% of the NOL share after Equity is paid out. And, many of the Debt Holders have purchased discounted Equity positions.

I haven't mentioned one other fact: The $9.73B Preferred FV has increased to approximately $11.139B due to cumulative instruments not being paid. I haven't included any damages or penalties either.

So, it appears the Commons would see a distribution in the event the Court approved an NOL of more than $105B and after all CTs and Preferreds have been paid.

Good luck.