Windbag pretty well summed up the history of it. But the future is in the details.
I have never seen such a botched, disorganized, disastrous, circus of a roll-out of a new industry in my whole life, like what has transpired with metal AM. Everyone who intended to 3D print in a big way thought they would do it all by themselves and behind closed doors. They thought they would keep it all for themselves and be capitalism corporate heroes. But what actually happened is complexity and physical nature handed them all their asses.
Suddenly they discovered they couldn't print well at all. Yields were abysmal, and the failure analysis showed root cause to be from all over the process floor; design, powder, printer, contamination, build chamber, you name it. And during all this, SGLB was flapping their arms saying we have a quality solution for you to enable you to see what is going on. Pay no attention to the fact that your whole manufacturing process is on fire with issues. And move that stuff out of the isle so we can fit this monstrous magic wheel cart contraption, with who knows what inside, along side your printer, you'll see.
But the industry didn't have time for IPQA. They had far more basic and big issues to tackle. And that will probably turn out to be a good thing for SGLB. It gave them time to work on the tech and make it good.
Meanwhile Wall Street looked around and saw that the whole metal AM thing wasn't working, moved on to other pastures, and left behind the shareholders of today.
Fast forward seven years and we now have some understanding of metal AM. Enough of it that the industry players are now looking toward making it cost effective, to compete with traditional manufacturing , and eyeing serial production. Now, at least the EU anyway, understands that it is so complex they need to have the whole metal AM field cooperating to bring it together. Now they have some time for IPQA. Now they are thinking IPQA is required to make serial production work. But the residue SGLB shareholder feels like they have been through a train wreck. And no matter what, they refuse to think things are different now. The IPQA chapter of metal AM is starting to be written now. But SGLB historical investors won't have any of it. Given that IPQA is now seen as mostly necessary for metal AM by the industry, and given that SGLB sits at the top of the pile for IPQA in metal AM, the patents alone would be worth $100 million usd to the industry. I mean if IPQA is it, then you have got to have the patents behind you, because SGLB owns the patents.
But SGLB historical investors are not in a position to value them or the company. So now what? The only thing to do is develop a market with a different set of investors. Ones that see the here and now, and see how things are likely to be. If Rice and his help can develop a real market for SGLB stock to trade in, with market participants that think and act according to where things are now in the industry and the company, then SGLB will have a chance to have a proper valuation applied. And if metal AM actually really gets going with serial production, then Wall Street will come back. But I really expect 2020 to be big because metal AM is really looking toward IPQA to help them in a big way. I am pretty sure the IPQA chapter in metal AM is starting now.
All the best,
Silversmith
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