8yr & 4yr Cycles: Good morning, the cycle analysis is still challenging because it is a fluid analysis which one needs to readjust timelines since it is never a precise projection. When I find time, I need to get back to the subject.
This is my reply which I quote again when you initiated the cycle discussion to me on Sept 17, 2006.
First Draft on combining 4yr - 8.6yr Global Business Cycle:
When considering 4yr-8.6yr Economic Confidence Model cycles, we likely have seen the 4yr cycle bottom during Jun-Jul 2006 bottoming process.
As I have shown various charts with 4 yr cycle on my previous posts, the projected timeline is Oct2006, however, considering the high volatility and extremely negative sentiment as noted “Climactic” sell off on VIX breakout charts.
As you can see on the SPX LT chart with 4yr projected timelines (blue) vs actual bottom (magenta) lines, the formation is irregular even though we can identify the 8.6 cycle repetition during the last 20 yrs as noted by “Economic Confidence Mode (ECM)l” overlay on the SPX chart. The ECM bottoms are coincide with the major lows that we had during the last 20 years., i.e. 1985 (1987) bottom, 1994 bottom, and 2002 bottom; hence, we can give due-credibility to the model since the original date is 1997 which projected the relative highs and lows during the last 10 years since the ECM was introduced. We are yet to see the 2002-2011 cycle replication of the ECM, hence, the purpose of this analysis.
The high targets that we have seen for this run up could be the high for the middle peak shown on the 2002-2011 H&S. (to be continued)
~~~~~~~~~
As you know, Cycles are not precise, so need to reconsider and modify my thinking as I observe "breakout", "level of retracement", "failure of breakout", etc. from this price level.
Of course, my anticipation is markets are going to breakout from the current resistances.
Will post more thoughts later. This is just a quick thought even though I was pondering about this particular model combination before.
First Draft on combining 4yr - 8.6yr Global Business Cycle:
When considering 4yr-8.6yr Economic Confidence Model cycles, we likely have seen the 4yr cycle bottom during Jun-Jul 2006 bottoming process.
As I have shown various charts with 4 yr cycle on my previous posts, the projected timeline is Oct2006, however, considering the high volatility and extremely negative sentiment as noted “Climactic” sell off on VIX breakout charts.
As you can see on the SPX LT chart with 4yr projected timelines (blue) vs actual bottom (magenta) lines, the formation is irregular even though we can identify the 8.6 cycle repetition during the last 20 yrs as noted by “Economic Confidence Mode (ECM)l” overlay on the SPX chart. The ECM bottoms are coincide with the major lows that we had during the last 20 years., i.e. 1985 (1987) bottom, 1994 bottom, and 2002 bottom; hence, we can give due-credibility to the model since the original date is 1997 which projected the relative highs and lows during the last 10 years since the ECM was introduced. We are yet to see the 2002-2011 cycle replication of the ECM, hence, the purpose of this analysis.
The high targets that we have seen for this run up could be the high for the middle peak shown on the 2002-2011 H&S. (to be continued)
~~~~~~~~~
As you know, Cycles are not precise, so need to reconsider and modify my thinking as I observe "breakout", "level of retracement", "failure of breakout", etc. from this price level.
Of course, my anticipation is markets are going to breakout from the current resistances.
Will post more thoughts later. This is just a quick thought even though I was pondering about this particular model combination before.
The link below is my chart analysis which I posted on my personal trading website.
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