Comeon guys, let's not turn this into another Yahoo board. If elmono is worried about sales being 1/8th of what he believed were projected, then let's try to help him think this through.
The above court document shows Insmed's Income Projections as used by TRCA to substantiate the $8M projected sales figure for 2006.
1. This "confidential" document is not dated; we don't know when the projections were compiled. 2. The projections assume 200 children using Iplex during 2006 @ $40,000 revenue per child. 3. Because Iplex didn't launch until May 2006, it would have been pretty darn hard to reach the $8M figure by the end of 2006. 4. If another poster who claimed Iplex was selling for $30,000 per year is correct, it would have required 267 patients to have been on Iplex for the full year to have reached the $8M projection. 5. If actual revenue for 2006 is "less than $1M", then $1M/$30k would be 33 kids on an annual basis; assuming May launch (1/2 year) this would mean roughly 66 kids on Iplex during 2006. This figure might have to be adjusted upward if revenues are delayed by insurance reimbursements, etc.
My belief, therefore, is that these "projections" were prepared sometime prior to 2006 before Insmed knew exactly when Iplex would launch and before they knew how much the drug would be sold for. Projections are just that - and I don't think you should be too concerned about the drop from $8M to $1M. For all we know, Insmed has been taking it slow on pushing Iplex sales until the trial outcome is known.
Now, if revenue is still at or under $1M in 2007 then you can start worrying.
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