Replies to post #63817 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[SSKILLZ1]

TVTY

Well they obviously lowered eps guidance, pretty much thanks to the unit they acquired. I originally thought when they acquired before they came out with the $2.24-2.52 Guidance. I thought they would come out with about $2.25-2.35, we knew this was a transition year, before more synergies were unlocked next year on both revenue and cost. Also debt is getting paid down which is a plus.

What I really like is the growth in the health Unit for 2020, that sounds like a real positive. Some of there revenue synergies planned sound exciting, of course we still got the cost synergies as well. Plus as debt drops, IE will drop as well. And they are ahead of schedule paying it down. I still believe there will be significant growth in 2020 lead by the healthcare segment with the stabilization and possible growth of the nutritional segment, adding in the revenue synergies which I think will become a big plus.

Honestly I still think EPS is gonna come in towards the high end of guidance this year, and I think it will accelerate next year to about the $2.75+ range like I said when I bought it. So in reality nothing has really changed from my original investment thesis. In the 16's we are looking at a pe of around 6 of where I think earnings will come in at 2020 and a pe a little over 7 for this year earnings using the midpoint. This business is spinning off a ton of cash flow and they will pay down debt rapidly over the coming years, which will also help grow eps, as right now IE is taking about a .35-.40 hit to eps every quarter. So when we start lowering that alone, forget all the other things I said that is gonna help significantly. TVTY in the 16's is too cheap to sell for me. Plus I still believe my plan is intact here, I will say management in q1 made a mistake with the guidance I never thought they should of been that optimistic, with the acquisition, now I think guidance is where they could hit the top end of it, maybe even slightly exceed it. But lets just say, the upper end is where they will hit. I'm very excited to see the healthcare unit pick up though with growth, and getting back to the kind of growth rate the unit had historically this will be another huge help to hitting the 2020 numbers I think they can, along with both cost and revenue synergies. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.