Replies to post #33364 on The New CS Board

[ahimsak]

I still see 2780 to 2800 for likely bottom tomorrow morning. Still short 50% of my money qqq. Was 100% short and 50% long sds Friday.

Sold off my sds and covered half my qqq short at about spx 2830, better to not take too much risk after this big a gain.

[Oddlot]

Cancel the buy at 2812, I just talked myself out of it.

The slopes of ma's of all cycle periods less than 3.3 yrs, with exception of 43week, are negative. As the MA represents the sum of all cyclic forces longer than the MA, the 43week is the odd man out. The peak in Sept18 could/should produce a cyclic high approx 43weeks later, and we just passed the 43week point 1-2 weeks ago. Slopes don't flip until halfway through the move, and nominally 5-10 weeks from the high in this instance. So a case can be made that the high has already been made, but not enough time has elapsed to allow the MA slope to flip.

The time between April high and July high was 12 weeks, and it is likely that the time period between low in May and the end of this decline will be similar. We are in week 10, implying further weakness for 2-3 weeks. A strong rally immediately should be sold on failure, with the 2-3 week time horizon. Afterwards, a rally within a bear mkt is likely to occur.

I think ahimsak has called it well, and before I did.

Oddlot