Yep, I have the script spreadsheet bookmarked, and it has been very helpful. I’d agree that the market is skeptical, but I will also add that many of these small bios are “controlled” by the hedgies, and their playbook is to short the launch of a new drug on the approval pop. With the insurance hurdles now blocking initial access, the odds are certainly in their favor. Antares really didn’t help themselves either by having the smallest cash reservers for a drug launch that I think I’ve ever seen, and they basically had to thread the needle. Not many, besides us dumb retail, would have thought they could actually pull it off with such a minuscule salesforce, and so little cash. And yet, it’s beginning to look like they just might. It’s still early, and ATRS is in the “prove it” phase, but I think after another couple quarters this will pass.
I also agree with you that securing the debt financing was critical, yuge, and it probably caused the naysayers some pause. I really believe that Xyo could grab a much larger share of the market even faster with the proper marketing budget (incl tv ads) next year, but really can’t argue against their strategy of keeping their costs controlled and reaching profitability. I still have my concerns with Teva and their “pay for delay,” and other shenanigans, but I’m still optimistic for gen Epi and gen Forteo. Getting that AB rating and rapid insurance coverage will also be critical. So yeah, the next six months will be pretty telling, and if things continue to break the right way for Antares, I think you’re right, and we could see a double or triple next year.
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