I see his rationale, and many things support his thinking. I just dont buy anyone knows what the hell is going on anymore with the prices. Its too hyper-sensitive of a market right now.
I do know one thing and a lot of oil is online from these shale plays, but also keep in mind:
1. CAPEX is way down
2. A lot of the best locations in the shale plays have been drilled
Sooner or later this oil boom isnt going to produce the high numbers it is right now imo. Costs to produce keep coming down of course, but costs to find the new fields are still up there.
lot of M&A going on right now within the industry. Big boys gobbling up smaller players who are debt heavy or stressed. More of a acreage grab.
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